Voucher privatization (Russia 1992-1994)

The privatization took place on a much wider scale in the early 1990s, when the government of Russia
deliberately set a goal to sell its assets out. As the Soviet Union
collapsed, the government was forced to manage the huge and inefficient
state enterprise sector inherited from the Soviet ecomomy. Privatization was carried out by the State Committee for State Property Management of the Russian Federation
under Anatoly Chubais with the goal to transform the enterprises into
profit-seeking businesses, not dependent on government subsidies for
their survival. To distribute property quickly and to win popular
support, the reformers decided to rely mostly on the mechanism of free voucher privatization, earlier implemented in Czechoslovakia,
and on the nearly free transfer of shares to employees, as it was
believed that the sell of property instead of the free transfer would
have almost certainly resulted in a further concentration of ownership
among the mafia and the former Soviet political and industrial elite, which they sought to avoid. Nevertheless, contrary to the government's expectations, insiders
managed to have acquired control over most of the assets, which
remained largely dependent on the state budget for years to come. Thus
the initial objectives have not been fully achieved, although a great
deal of assets became privatized remarkably quickly and provided some
basis for market competition. The voucher privatization took place in
1992-1994. The vouchers, each corresponding to a share in the national
wealth, were distributed equally among the population, including
minors. They could be exchanged for shares in the enterprises to be
privatized. Most people, however, weren't well-informed and/or were
very poor and were quick to sell the vouchers for money, unprepared
and/or unwilling to invest^{[citation needed]}.
Most vouchers and hence most shares ended up acquired by the management
of the enterprises. Although Russia's initial privatization legislation
attracted widespread popular support^{[citation needed]}
as it promised to distribute the national wealth among the general
public and ordinary employees of the privatized enterprises, eventually
the public felt deceived, and Anatoly Chubais became one of the most odious public figures in modern Russia. (source wikipedia)

Short Sell - Concept

To profit from a stock price going down, short sellers can borrow a security
and sell it, expecting that it will be cheaper to repurchase in the
future. When the seller decides that the time is right (or when the
lender recalls the shares), the seller buys back the shares in order to
return them to the lender. The process generally relies on the fact
that securities are fungible, so that the shares returned do not need to be the same shares as were originally borrowed.

The short seller borrows from their broker, who usually in turn has borrowed the shares from some other investor who is holding his shares long; the broker itself seldom actually purchases the shares to lend to the short seller.^[1] The lender of the shares does not lose the right to sell the shares.

Short selling is the opposite of "going long." The short seller takes a fundamentally negative, or "bearish"
stance, intending to "sell high and buy low," to reverse the
conventional adage. The act of buying back the shares which were sold
short is called 'covering the short'. Day traders and hedge funds often use short selling to allow them to profit on trading in stocks which they believe are overvalued, just as traditional long investors attempt to profit on stocks which are undervalued by buying those stocks.

In the U.S., in order to sell stocks short, the seller must arrange
for a broker-dealer to confirm that it is able to make delivery of the
shorted securities. This is referred to as a "locate." Brokers have a
variety of means to borrow stocks in order to facilitate locates and
make good delivery of the shorted security.

The vast majority of stock borrowed by U.S. brokers come from loans
made by the leading custody banks and fund management companies (see
list below). Sometimes brokers are able to borrow stocks from their
customers who own "long" positions. In these cases, if the customer has
fully paid for the long position, the broker cannot borrow the security
without the express permission of the customer, and the broker must
provide the customer with collateral and pay a fee to the customer. In
cases where the customer has not fully paid for the long position
(meaning the customer borrowed money from the broker in order to
finance the purchase of the security), the broker will not need to
inform the customer that the long position is being used to effect
delivery of another client's short sale.

Most brokers will allow retail customers to borrow shares to short a
stock only if one of their own customers has purchased the stock on margin.
Brokers will go through the "locate" process outside their own firm to
obtain borrowed shares from other brokers only for their large
institutional customers.

Stock exchanges such as the NYSE or the NASDAQ
typically report the "short interest" of a stock, which gives the
number of shares that have been sold short as a percent of the total float. Alternatively, these can also be expressed as the short interest ratio,
which is the number of shares sold short as a multiple of the average
daily volume. These can be useful tools to spot trends in stock price
movements.

Energy Non-crisis

This is a long video, but I hope you all have time to hear it.

Where from here (by Mr. Gasser Shehata)

Elsalam Aleilkom my dear brothers and sisters,

 

I am very sorry for not replying to so many emails sent to me in the last few months.

 

I realize how many people are so confused about the future. I wish to help clarify this confusion once and for all.

 

Lets first start talking briefly about the USA.
You all have understood the mortgage sub-prime crisis and why financial
institutions lost trillions of $. But now, the USA and the West in
general are in recession. This recession will last at least for 2
years. This will coincide with Obama getting some of the US troops out
of Iraq and lowering US defense budget. Bush overspent on his military
failures and the American people are now paying the price. This will
also coincide with the USA government following a Keynesian policy with
huge civilian spending. I actually expect the whole world to be
keynesian.

 

Why
today the US$ keeps appreciating when the US economy is in recession?
The answer is simple: The US is selling tons of assets all over the
world to handle its current liquidity shortage. They must sell in
emerging markets as they lost more in the US and must re-balance their
portfolio. Once they sell those assets, they must exchange the local
currency like EGP to US$ which create more demand for US$ and therefore
the US$ is appreciating against most currencies at this current time.

 

However,
once they finish selling most of their assets overseas, you will see
the US$ going down again like you have never seen it before. I
personally expect the US$ to reach 4 EGP within the next 2 years. The
Americans will have to deppreciate their currency to attract investors,
increase exports and pay off the huge debts they have. They will flood
the world with US$ so sell your dollars at the peak and forget about the dollar for the next 2 years. 

 

If you like following US markets, follow GE and Google and pharmaceuticals. 

 

What about emerging markets?

 

The
emerging economies that depend on exportation to grow will suffer.
Other economies with domestic and external growth like China will slow
down but will still grow. They key word here is domestic consumption.
China has a new middle class that is consuming like never before. China
alone has 200 millions Chinese middle class and growing every day like
plants. China can now make any medium car better than any Europeans,
Americans but at lesser price. In the future, you either produce high
quality products or China will terminate you out of the market.

 

What about Egypt? Make attention to this:

 

Egypt
grew in the last few years from an organic growth. This means that 80%
of our GDP growth is due to Egypt and Egyptians consuming locally. Only
20% is due to exportation. 70% of investments came from Egyptians and
30% from Arabs and Foreigners.

 

Make even more attention to this:

 

The
cause of the growth of the Egyptian economy in recent years is the
demography. You see, after Egypt made peace with Israel in 1979,
Egyptians started getting married alot and making lots of babies. This
is called a baby boom. Those kids are growing and today, you have a
huge young population in Egypt. Unfortunately half of them have no
education so they don't feel any growth or improvement. However, we see
others who are well educated, hard workers and smart. They work for
large firms like Mobinil, Orascomates, Ezz, Raya call centers, etc.
They work in Banks, brokerage, Oil, services and tourism, etc. Those
people make good income to shop at City Stars, dine out and blow their
mobile phone bills. Those kids need to get married, buy a home and all
what come with it. Today still, 1 millions babies are born every year.
You can see the power of this generation in the real estate deficit we
see in Egypt, especially middle class real estate.

 

We
have at least 10 million Egyptians making enough income to keep the
economy growing. In 10 years, we will have 25 millions Egyptians with
high purchasing powers. Egypt will continue to grow due to its young
population and a new consumption culture that is very profitable for
capitalism. (I do not approve this culture but this is a different
subject)

 

There
is no doubt that Egypt's growth will slow down during 2009. Instead of
6-7% growth rate, we will see 5-6% growth rate. But some sectors will
experience higher growth rate than others naturally. Only Allah knows
the future. In theory, tourism should slow down a little but who knows?
Couldn't we be cheaper and more competitive than other countries and
compete better in this crisis environment? Could we get more tourists
instead of less? Can this be applied to textile which is expected to
suffer from low Imports from Europe? Can we make better cloths at
cheaper prices? Can we find new markets? The price of fertilizers
deppreciated but Egyptian companies still sell it with a profit due to
low cost. You all must study each stock on its own and decide if it
will suffer or gain from this relative slow down.

 

What about the Egyptian stock market?

 

We
should still see the stock market appreciate soon. Why? First because
any crash should correct 40% up but mainly because the market crashed
way too much and the prices of so many stocks are now so devaluated
that no slow down can justify it.

 

Now,
investing will be harder. You must buy very low P/E stocks and be very
selective. It is not about past earnings but about 2009-2010 earnings.
If you feel your investment will do well, then hold it, buy more. If
you feel it will suffer, then sell it and buy more of the one that will
perform well. In other words, every investor should concentrate his
portfolio in 4-5 stocks maximum and they better be the best of the best
and well diversified..

 

Please
realize that capitalism is not dead and considering socialism is a
waste of time. I don't believe Islam is the solution but I believe that
the solution is in Islam. Don't waste your time considering consipracy
theories about the Jews and Israel. You give them more importance than
they deserve. As far as I am concerned, and with all respects to my
Jews cousins, they are ants and the world is an elephant. 20 millions
Jews in the world can't crash a market, especially when they lose with
everybody.

 

The
world might seem crashing but Elhamd Lellah, food prices are going down
so that so many poor people on earth can eat and not starve to death. I
expect the Egyptian central bank to lower interest rate soon. Inflation
is a huge problem and it is the only real threat to the economy.
Unfortunately, I believe that Food, oil and metals prices will increase
again but not as much as before. Follow the Chinese and the Indian as
they are boomingll! China during a recession in the USA is expecting 9%
growth instead of 10% growth!!! Amazing!

 

If you are an investor, don't be scared. Invest and insha'Allah we make good return in the near future.  Follow the 100 and 200 days moving average and you will know when to sell.

 

Remember: the formula of success is:

 

Work hard + knowledge + ethics = success.

 

Success is from Allah alone and Allah will never bless gambling or arrogance.

 

Our
world is changing. Aren't you surprised and sad about the trillions of
$ that the world lost? This could have fed Africa and Asia alltogether
for the next 20 years.

 

Warren Buffet told Americans " It is time to buy corporate America".

 

I say: "It is time to buy Corporate Egypt".

 

When
you buy, you buy gradually over days or weeks depending on the market.
Buy with your brain not with your heart. Don't follow the market but
rather act before the market.

 

I
expect and hope that we are at bottom. Buy 50% less than book value and
70% below fair value. Remember, we are looking at the future not the
past. I hope I am clear about that.

 

Finally,
if you ask someone to help you invest or trade, you must be intelligent
and ask someone who is successful. In other words, anybody who lost
money in the stock market while trading stocks should just stay quit
and help himself/herself first before helping others. 

 

I sincerely wish you all success, prosperity and good health.

 

Elhamd Lellah for everything.

 

Gasser Shehata

ETRS - EGTrans Co.

• Generated a buy signal @ 45LE RMO on 27Aug
  
• Now that the stock is well above the buy price, then Stop loss @ 58LE non RMO
  
• You may want to check the intraday charts for the stock.
  

 

SWDY 20Jul2008 - Sweedy Cables - Buy

- Low volume
- RMO confirmed buy signal @ 142.7 , stop loss @ 139.82
- The close = last trade confirmed > signaled buy price.
- Over Bought, the stock needs to hold its position for three days or so.
- The stock confirmed the reversal from the short term down-trend it previouslt conformed to.
- I would buy this stock, and re-buy when it drops from the over bought area on K%(14,5)

Market condition 30Jun2008

- We are still waiting for large entities / investment funds to enter the market.
- Prices are very appealing.
- We are still in an UPTREND.
- We would NOT want to penetrate the 9800 point on CASE30 that would lead to panic, hence sharper decline within the market prices.
- June29th, some funds entered the market picking up some stocks @ critical support points.
- If this was an artificial support as usual, then it will fail today.
- Many are expecting to have good market conditions after the July 1st day off.
- Many who has left the market earlier will NOT re-enter the market unless penetrated the 11, 124 !
- Bellow the above level, all will be swing trading and NOT holding for nay reason, thus give the market real harsh days.
- We should all carefully monitor our stop loss points.

SKPC 04Jun2008 Sidi Kreir Petrochemicals Company

- Sidi Kreir security.
- Too many buy signals.
- Candles shortenning JUST bellow 21.98LE
- I would buy in the current level, stop loss @ 21.50LE
- Company working in the chemical field.
- Too many rumers, the main is that a brokerage company is dominating the security (fools).
- I expect a penetration to 22LE is coming soon isa.
- After penetration the road is OPEN.

EPCO 04Jun2008

- The last signal generated for this security was a buy @ 31LE and 34LE
- The security shows strong behavior in market declines.
- The security is expecting another buy signal once penetrated the previous high (41LE)
- I am expecting to see 47.20LE in the near future under a good market condition.

CASE30 27May2008

- Case30 is moving up.
- Closed near high
- Targetting an important resistance 11,133
- Reaching 11,133 is now easier because of ORTE new offer @ 83 (ORTE current price is 75)
- Penetrating the 11,133 will generate and RMO confirmed buy signal.
- ORTE is a key word during the coming week isa.

AFDI 19May2008

- This security proved to be strong against the market bad conditions.
- I would buy this security @58.10 and stop loss by penetrating the 53.60
- The security still has some profits to give.

Case30 19May2008

- The index dropped bellow 50 days WMA and 200 days WMA.
- A small rebound in ONE day failed to close above my important resistance 10,600.
- Tomorrow will show the real intention of the CASE index.
- Failing to close above the 10,602 will mean I will SELL the market until a proper rebound near the 9750 ~ 9800 range.
- This will mean the market is NOT in an up-trend short.
- Swingers are the ONLY players with caution; bears are ruling short.

OCIC 13May2008

- I am writing this before 183th may session
- The stock penetrated the RMO previous confirmed buy signal.
- The next support is 368.
- If one should see a rebound from this point (hopefully), a quick buy is recommended targeting 410.
- The stock should re-test the broken 410 support to confirm it as a broken support, and declare a known resistance point.
- Take extra care when dealing with this stock the coming day.
- Medium terms and RMOs should NOT enter unless 410 is penetrated UP

Support points - Falling Securities - Rebound session expected

- OCIC: 387 (Broken and confirmed) then 367 (solid - not tested)
- ACGC: 12 (solid - stop loss) broken, then 11.38 solid (Tested and stock rebound)
- The above levels are wide and been accomplished by gapping, so penetrating 12 is really dangerous.
- ACGC is still good and is expected to boom, I am just taking benefit of swings. (A nice piece of news was generated yesterday concerning an investment profitable sell)
- EGTS: Accumulation point above 8.35 (solid), I am expecting a break through 9LE to new levels soon
- The above security broke the support level, but need confirmation of the break - too bad)
- GGCC: Straight uptrend 1st resistance 90LE - Stop loss bellow 80 and NOT reached
- ORTE: The offer @ 83 is due wednesday

Support points - Falling Securities

- OCIC: 387 then 367 (solid)
- ACGC: 12 (solid - stop loss), then 11.38 solid
- The above levels are wide and been accomplished by gapping, so penetrating 12 is really dangerous.
- ACGC is still good and is expected to boom, I am just taking benefit of swings.
- EGTS: Accumulation point above 8.35 (solid), I am expecting a break through 9LE to new levels soon
- GGCC: Straight uptrend 1st resistance 90LE
- ORTE: The offer @ 83 is due wednesday

CASE30 12May2005

- The market is declining for the past 4 sessions
- 1st support point (RMO) is 11,133
- 2nd support point would be 10,890
- Both above points are solid points.
- OCIC bad performance is really affecting CASE30.

EGTS 08May2008

- Buy aggressively slightly above 8.50LE
- This area is growing a very solid support point every single week.
- Target 14LE in the near future.
- The pop-up is NOT speculated to be soon though. Speculating the timing is NOT so easy for me.
- I think wave analyzers will generate more accurate speculations of how near is the pop-up is.
- I would still accumulate on 8.50 level.
- Stop loss 8.38 (but be-ware of sellers traps during market corrections)

ACGC 08May2008

- I expect a rebound of 12.50 (if reached).
- I recommend an aggressive buy upon any for casted rebound.
- Still in uptrend
- settlement above 12.95 for a week will build a very stable support point for higher prices in future.

OCIC 08May200

- The active swing traders was forced to profit gain @ 440LE
- Stop loss points should be 410LE
- The security is severely affecting the CASE30 index.
- I have seen sell power within the security during past 3 sessions.
- Still in up-trend in ALL frames (no intraday).
- Watch out for the stop loss point.

ORTE related ( Mobile Banking)

ArabFinance:
National Telecom Regulatory Authority (NTRA) is looking into providing
licenses for Mobile banking after its popular success in more than one
local and international bank.

Dr.Amr Badawi,Executive Manager of
NTRA said that a team is working with Central Bank Of Egypt (CBE) To
determine the necessary framwork to organize the licensing of this new
service.

He added that the main reason for this step is the increased activity of mobile banking providers recently.

He said that Mobile Banking in Egypt now consists of balance information plus Credit Card transactions.

It is worth noting that METCO communications leads in Mobile banking,its
ventures include National Bank Of Egypt (NBE),National Societe General
Bank (NSGB),Piraeus Bank, Credit Agricole,National Bank and Banque
Misr. HSBC is run by a central system operation from Hong Kong and Citi
Bank is run through a similar system from london.

Orascom Telecom has already announced its drive to establish a company specialized in Mobile Banking and money transfering.

CASE30 22Apr2008

- CASE30 has generated a buy signal yesterday intending to move up.
- I would have bought the index @ 11,902 and stop loss pointed @11,705
- This is a very optimistic point of view, that I personally still in the "NOT believing" stage.
- One will see wonders the coming days, especially that the famous Orascoms (ORTE, and OCIC) are swinging fast.
- OCIC somehow reminds me of the swings just BEFORE the announcement of Lavarge scheme.
- ORTE is ALREADY playing games after the intention to buy around 10% of the market with 83LE (market price was 75LE)
- ONE may say that he is already SELLING, or making way for WIND (partner- Mr. Nagib already chairman) to sell with a better price within our market.
- I have no comment for the above quote.
- Technically, I would still buy the index, and act accordingly and watch the 11,705 point.
- Needless to say that the 11,500 point is now stronger, and now have the 50 days moving average supporting this point.

ACGC 22Apr2008

- Facts:
- ACGC penetrated the 12.90LE DOWN
- ACGC penetrated the 12.34 LE DOWN
- ACGC is really targetting 11.50LE "Target 1"

- Estimates:
- As I already stated before, upon penetration of the 12.90LE support, the security may rebound on 11.50LE and swing between 11.50 ~ 12.34 or 12.90 (Circled in graph), which will be profitable for many (9% or more).

ASCM 21Apr2008

-ASCM is now accumulating above a good support point.
- The security is showing high volumes.
- The major trend is up.
- The short term is sideway.
- Very risky to break down the 200LE level
- Still, investors are obliged to accumulate within this Febo level (38% level)
- RMO traders will NOT enter the security until 235 level penetrated upward.
- Swingers will trade the sideway 200 ~ 234LE range 17%
- The security is known to move UP fast intra-day level, yet very slow for EOD traders.

OCIC 21Apr2008

- The security is hitting new targets every day
- Volumes was high during the accumulation period BEFORE every move up.
- The money flow index still has some to offer, and NOT in a danger zone.
- The stockastic is NOT over bought yet, so the way should be clear to higher levels.
- According to Febonacci projection levels, I am targeting settlement over the 50% level (452LE)
- Or maybe a settlement over the 61.8% (470LE)
- This security is heaven for RMO traders, then next three months is expected to be really good for the security holders.

Let us wait and see

ACGC swingers

 

- Active swing traders prtected their gains by selling between 13 ~ 12.90LE
- A good buy signal is a rebound above 11.40 or from 12LE
- 13LE will be the first target, so swingers will aim at trading a 12~13 swing.
- I guess RMO traders (the ones still holding) will exit upon penetrating 12LE down.
- I do NOT have expectations for the security. I would recommend sing trading as above ONLY.
- I ammore than interested to see how ACGC will be performing the coming weeks.
- The security is still bullish, thus I will be willing to trade it (goofy me)

CASE30 been sold for active swing traders

 

CASE30 14Apr 2008

- The CASE is STILL BULLISH.
- Still in an UPTREND in ALL levels (short, medium and long).
- Short term up-trend is weakening.
- The index has to confirm the stressed so called Egyptian economy strength and get to higher levels (12000) within the coming 3 days.
- I would SELL the index if confirmed a close bellow 11400, so I am critical now.
- This does NOT mean I would NOT bye in the nearest rebound.
- I would be just making sure I am taking advantage of the swing.
- I am NOT expecting anything, nor know anything.

-ORTE is ready to take the CASE to good levels, the questions is: Are the BULLS ready?

We will wait and see.

EGTS 14Apr 2008

- Good fundamentally.
- Long accumulation period.
- Too many shares.
- Good support point (8.35LE). Company is NOT known to respect support points though.
- Volume penetrated average volume 3 times, once each month!
- This could be due to informants byes or large investors testing the sell power, or maybe accumulating.

- I would bye upon a rebound of 8.35 support and sell well above 9LE as the market permits.(7.7%)
- Safe Swing trading ONLY for the time being.

ASCM 14Apr2008

- Nothing new within this security rather than being a promising investment in the fundamental level.
- The volume of today is bringing up too many questions regarding the identity of the traders, since the volume of today was way above the average volume levels.
- ASCM is sitting on a good support, and is waiting for the bulls to get the lead.
- Bears have finished selling, and investors are accumulating.
- I would NOT go in unless 235LE is well penetrated, as the security is NOT a fast moving one.

ORTE 14Apr2008

- The security is experiencing weakness since the last fall in Jan2008

- The security is trading slightly above a good support point that we surely do NOT want broken (around 72.5)

- The security is a key player in the CASE30 index and is expected to be used to lift CASE30 to higher levels as goes on within the market these days.

- We should strictly watch this security during the next couple of weeks.

- Breaking down the support point will lead to further declines within the market itself.

- Going up to 80s and 90s levels should help CASE30.

- Security is expected to boom while the second land lines license is put to action in the very near future to get to its fair value.

- I would watch closely and buy upon the penetration of 81 level targeting 95 minimum (8.3%) in the short term.

- Longer term targets can be stated once penetrated the 95 resistance.

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ACGC Mon.14Apr2008

- I think ACGC has some possibilities in short term.
- I would put a profit protect point of 12.90LE in the next couple of sessions.
- Going deeper than this point will result in a trading range 11.40 ~ 12.90
- ACGC jumped the latter range in ONLY two days.
- Let us wait for tomorrow's session and check the performance of the stock.